The commitment of the Central Bank to tight monetary policy, the emphasis on price stability and the perception that has turned positive with the process of economic management starting from the change is the summary of the recent policy course. With the implementation of orthodox monetary policies, the Central Bank, which makes a direct monetary tightening to combat inflation, has put the emphasis on policy continuity for the disinflation process, with the direction that it will continue this policy for a long time. The commitment to the expectation that the interest rates will continue to be high enough to ensure disinflation and the adoption of this as a medium-term policy has recently been made, and it is seen that the Central Bank will keep the interest rates slightly above inflation in the foreseeable future. It is expected that the Central Bank will start foreign exchange purchases in the process of strengthening the foreign exchange buffers in the process of strengthening the reserves.
The general expectation is that there will be no change in interest rates, but the upward trend in inflation continues and we think that the CB can increase the interest rate by 100 bps with a proactive tightening move. The guidance of the Central Bank towards tightening and the details in the policy statements will of course be critical.
The possibility of an upward deviation in inflation has increased within the framework of recent realizations and past inflationary effects. The high increase PPI shows that the cost effect on prices will continue through the delayed transition to CPI. We expect inflation to sit on the 15% path for a certain period of time in the first part of the year and to see its peak in April. The base effect that will work favorably in the second half of the year, the decreasing exchange rate pressure and improving seasonal conditions will support the decline in inflation.
Kaynak Tera Yatırım
Hibya Haber Ajansı
Kaynak: Hibya Haber Ajansı