Fed minutes show that contraction will begin in November or December. In the time since the last FOMC, it is possible to say that the hawkish trend has gained weight as inflation concerns have increased. This situation is also important in terms of rate hike expectations, so we monitor the reflection of bond yields. Fed member Waller, in his statements yesterday, said that
more drastic hikes may be needed in 2022 and triggered a new upward movement in the US 10-years. On the yield curve side, the movement continues in the short term. The short-term side with higher inflation sensitivity can narrow the spread to the anchored long-term segments. This year’s rise in inflation has lasted longer than policymakers expected, making it difficult to characterize price increases as temporary.
Even though we see a slight change in Turkey’s dollar-based yield curve on a daily basis, it is seen that the CBRT’s rate cut desire came to the fore in the week when market rate movement stands out. The renewed pressure on lira seems difficult to ease in a scenario where rates are lowered in MPC this week. In particular, the movement in bank bonds may be affected, and it will become more expensive for domestic companies to borrow in foreign currency. We expect the CBRT to cut rates by 50 bps.
Akbank obtained a syndicated loan of 460 million dollars and 206.8 million euros for 367 days. The total cost for slices is Libor+2.15% and Euribor+1.75%.
The curve consists of fixed rate Turkish government bonds denominated in US dollars. Bonds are selected according to the current nominal maturity closest to the specified maturity. (Source: Bloomberg, Ministry of Treasury and Finance)
The curve consists of US Treasury active securities in US dollars. 1-month, 3-month, 6-month and 1-year maturities are the most recently auctioned 4-week, 8-week, 13-week, 26-week and 1-year US Treasury bills. 2-year, 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, 10-year and 20-year maturities are the most recently auctioned US Treasury bonds. The 30-year maturity is the most recently auctioned 30-year US Treasury bond. The curve is updated on each auction day with the validity date of the next market day. (Source: Bloomberg, US Department of Treasury)
SELECTED COUNTRY REAL INTEREST GRAPHS
Real Interest (Inflation-Adjusted Interest Rate) is obtained by deducting the inflation rate from the nominal interest rates of the relevant countries. Central bank rates and current inflation rates are used in our chart to make Turkey’s current inflation outlook comparable to that of other countries. (Source: Bloomberg)
SELECTED COUNTRY 5yr CDS GRAPHS
CDS (Credit Default Swaps) shows the perception of market players regarding the risk premium of the relevant country. The higher the CDS, the higher the risk in the country’s assets. (Source: Bloomberg)
SELECTED CURRENCY TYPES 1 WEEK IMPLIED VOLATILITY GRAPHS
The 1-Week Implied Volatility Chart shows market players’ perception of the relevant currency pair. It is accepted that the derivative products of the instrument with increased implied volatility are priced more expensive and the risk premium of the related instrument increases. (Source: Bloomberg)
Kaynak Tera Yatırım-Enver Erkan
Hibya Haber Ajansı
Kaynak: Hibya Haber Ajansı
