According to the August GTS (General trade system) foreign trade data announced by TURKSTAT in cooperation with the Ministry of Commerce; Turkey’s exports increased by 51.9% to 18.92 billion USD in August 2021 compared to the same period of the previous year, while imports increased by 23.6% to 23.18 billion USD in the same period. Thus, the foreign trade deficit decreased by 32.4% between August 2020 and August 2021 and became 4.26 billion USD. The ratio of exports to imports increased from 66.4% to 81.6% in the said period.
In August, the country we exported to the most was Germany, followed by the USA, England and Iraq. Exports to 27 countries that make up the European Union increased by 51.1% to 11.14 billion USD, while the share of the EU in our total exports decreased from 41.3% to 41.1%. In import items; China took the first place in August 2021, followed by Russia, Germany and the USA. While the share of intermediate goods (raw materials) in total imports increased in August, the share of capital and consumption goods decreased. While the share of exports of high technology products in our total exports was 3.1%, the share of the same group’s imports in our total imports was 13.2%.
According to STS (Special trade system), Turkey’s exports increased by 52% in August 2021 compared to the same period of the previous year and became 17.87 billion USD, while imports increased by 23.2% to 22.36 billion USD in the same period. The ratio of exports to imports was 79.9% in the said period.
With the regression of the effects of the epidemic, the positive outlook on the export of goods and services continues. The simultaneous contribution of foreign trade deficit and tourism revenues also supports the annual decline in the current account deficit. Since August is also a period that reflects these effects, we will continue to monitor the annual decline in the current account deficit. We have to follow a two-way risk balance in terms of imports. Because the negative effect of high raw material and energy prices has replaced the gold imports, which were eliminated compared to the previous year. Therefore, our import trends, including energy, continue to follow an upward trend. The increase in exchange rates, the effect of foreign exchange-based prices and the upward pressure on the energy commodity group caused by the global production deficit may complicate the situation in this composition. We see that the share of intermediate goods in imports tends to increase. The reflection of the increase in this item, especially on the export side, in the context of the rate of return to production is very intensely related to foreign demand.
In the context of industrial activity, we observe that general growth trends show some signs of slowdown as of 3Q21. As a matter of fact, annual industrial production growth rates declined from strong double digits (mostly due to base effect) to strong single digits. In contrast, manufacturing PMI figures show that the industry still remains in the growth zone. On the industrial side, it will be necessary to look at the rebound effect of the July’s seasonal slowdown in August, as the adjusted real sector confidence index and the increase in capacity utilization indicate that we can see a recovery effect. Nevertheless, the global production deficit and economic stresses pose a slowdown risk for external economies. Therefore, we believe that a somewhat cautious approach should be taken in this aspect of the business as well.
Within the framework of the positive indicators for August, we think that the effect of the decrease in the current account deficit will be reflected in the data in the same period. We maintain our current account deficit expectation as 20 billion USD throughout the year. Our current account deficit / GDP ratio expectation is 2.6%.
Kaynak Tera Yatırım
Hibya Haber Ajansı
Kaynak: Hibya Haber Ajansı