We expect the 2Q21 growth performance in the economy to be 21%, mainly due to factors such as the rollover effect on industrial production and credit expansion, as well as the effect from the bad base in the same period last year. In addition, we attach importance to the fact that the effect that will carry over to 3Q21, excluding the closing period, is relatively strong in terms of the picture drawn by the strong leading indicators in the economy, and that the contribution of the service sector and tourism to become evident in the next quarter, in terms of growth performance throughout the year. Despite the tight monetary policy and macroprudential measures, domestic demand conditions did not slow down significantly, while the contribution of exports was positive due to the recovery in foreign markets.
We will see that the effect of government expenditures on the growth composition of this year has slowed down partially. The reason for this is that the pandemic supports, which were used extensively last year, are used less in the light of this year’s recovery and normalization. At the same time, the return of tax debts that have been postponed or restructured from the previous year, plus the improvement in economic activity, has an increasing effect on financial performance. On the other hand, the acceleration in loan growth in the previous periods, especially in the 2Q20 and 3Q20 periods, is replicated this time in the form of a concentration specific to consumer loans. While this is the driver of demand-driven growth, the lack of weighting in commercial loans restrains investment trends. Although it makes sense of a certain limitation due to the interest cost, the lack of restraint on the consumption trend has recently led to the consideration of new restrictive measures. The nominal interest level created by high inflation, on the other hand, increases the cost burden especially in financial borrowings and increases the interest effect on repayments in foreign borrowing resources. In particular, the increase in interest payments on the Treasury’s borrowings confirms this image.
Although we think that the periodical growth will be high in the light of leading indicators in the 3Q21 period, we think that opening up will contribute heavily in addition to the positive factors such as industrial production and exports, which are strong throughout this year. While we reserve the reservation of the global or local economic shock effect due to Covid variants, we expect strong growth throughout the year with the positive contribution of the base from last year. In this context, we have revised our 2021 economic growth expectation as 7.8% upwards from our previous forecasts.
Kaynak Tera Yatırım
Hibya Haber Ajansı
Kaynak: Hibya Haber Ajansı
