According to data released today, US GDP growth in 2Q21 was announced as 6.5%. 1Q21 growth was revised to 6.3%. 2Q21 GDP growth remained below the expected 8.5%, but in a direction reflecting the return of national income to pre-pandemic levels. Increase in real GDP; reflects the increasingly ongoing economic recovery, the reopening of organizations, and the ongoing government response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2Q21, government assistance payments in the form of loans to businesses and grants to state and local governments increased, while social benefits to households such as direct economic impact payments decreased.
Real GDP growth in 2Q21 was partially offset by federal government spending, reflecting increases in personal consumption expenditure (PCE), non-residential fixed investment, exports and private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. Real consumption expenditures, with an increase of 11.8%, outperformed the headline growth; We also see high price pressures in core PCE, up 6.1% in 2Q21. The aforementioned data will not be added to the equation for the Fed as we are in 3Q21 and high frequency data has already drawn the picture.
In the week ended July 24, the first seasonally adjusted jobless claims were 400K, down 24K from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 5K from 419K to 424K. The 4-week moving average was 394,500, up 8K from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,250 from 385,250 to 386,500. We can say that there are relatively weak labor force data in the context of increasing the 4-week average, which can be attributed to its inability to stabilize below 400K, and its closeness to the monthly employment trend rather than instantaneously. Employment is the most important part of Powell’s reservations. Especially the loss of momentum is due to the lack of equal workforce growth in ethnic and local contexts. There is also the wage aspect. Quality workforce recovery, as well as its quantitative footing, are at attractive wage levels. This increases the tendency to be included in the active labor force rather than benefiting from unemployment insurance. The functionality of the reduction in social benefits was also important here, because companies were now in a position to increase employment. The interaction from macro to micro is important…
Kaynak Tera Yatırım-Enver Erkan
Hibya Haber Ajansı
Kaynak: Hibya Haber Ajansı
