2Q21 GDP growth, which is a data that will not give us any new information and will not shed light on the Fed as it is the past period, was slightly revised upwards at 6.6%. Growth in 2Q21 increasingly reflects the continued economic recovery, enterprise reopening and continued government response to the COVID-19 pandemic. While state aid payments in the form of loans to businesses and grants to state and local governments increased in the relevant period, social benefits to households such as direct economic impact payments decreased.
In detail, the update in GDP reflects upward revisions in non-residential fixed investment and exports, partially offset by downward revisions in private inventory investment, fixed-housing investment, and state and local government spending. Imports, the part omitted from the GDP calculation, were revised downwards. The increase in real consumer spending is 11.9%. The PCE price index rose 6.5%, undergoing an upward revision of 0.1 points. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index rose 6.1%. The increase in PCE reflected increases in services (mainly food services and accommodation) and goods (“other” non-durable goods, particularly pharmaceuticals, as well as clothing and footwear). The increase in non-residential fixed investment reflected increases in intellectual property products (research and development as well as software) and equipment (transport equipment). The increase in exports is seen as reflecting an increase in goods (non-automotive capital goods) and services (travel). The decline in retail trade stocks was effective in the decline in private stock investments. The decline in federal government spending primarily reflected the decline in non-defense spending on intermediate goods and services. Non-defense services decreased in 2Q21 as the processing and administration of Payroll Protection Program (PPP) loan applications by banks on behalf of the federal government decreased.
For the week ended August 21, the seasonally adjusted jobless claims figure was 353K, up 4K from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1K from 348K to 349K. The 4-week moving average was 366,500, down 11,500 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020, at 225,500. The previous week’s average was revised to 378K from 377,750.
In this period, it is more accurate to look at high-frequency current data rather than past lagged data. In order to make inferences about the Fed, we need data that reflects our current conditions. Unemployment applications and monthly average figures are also good indicators in terms of the general state of the employment market. There is still no significant reflection of the Delta variant in the labor market. This is a positive situation in terms of workforce and firm positions as well as individual incomes. However, if there is no significant deterioration in the near term, the probability of “tapering” increases even more. In terms of the market; Even if there will be no significant signal from Jackson Hole, the September FOMC would be expected.
Kaynak Tera Yatırım
Hibya Haber Ajansı
Kaynak: Hibya Haber Ajansı